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| Photo: Gémes Sándor/SzomSzed, Wikipedia Commons. |
The news that migration flows to Europe have been receding has
made many Europeans sigh with relief. Although the total number of applications
submitted fell
by 9% in 2016 as compared to 2015, since September the numbers have been on
an even more promising steady decrease. The number of first time asylum
applications in the third quarter of 2016 decreased by 15% compared with the
same quarter of 2015. Frontex reports that total number of arrivals to the
Greek islands felt by two-thirds in 2016.
Good news!
But I am worried. The night before the storm is always
deceptively calm.
The good news is that receding flows give us breathing space
and time to patch up the failing migration system without public hysteria. The EU has won time to mend at least some of its
internal disagreements.
Countries also got a breathing space to calm the public with convincing measures addressing migration flows before elections in Germany, France, the Netherlands. Nationalist, far right, populist parties, and domestic extremists have it harder now to exploit the anti-migration sentiment. Those Europeans fearing the loss of cultural identity, jobs, and security can sleep better.
Countries also got a breathing space to calm the public with convincing measures addressing migration flows before elections in Germany, France, the Netherlands. Nationalist, far right, populist parties, and domestic extremists have it harder now to exploit the anti-migration sentiment. Those Europeans fearing the loss of cultural identity, jobs, and security can sleep better.
The bad news is that we haven’t properly used this time to
upgrade our fair-weather migration system and become better prepared to face
migration flows in the future.
Let’s give the EU the credit it deserves: some important
measures have been implemented. The upgrades in competencies, budgets, and
personnel of FRONTEX, the European Border and Coast Guard, have resulted in
quicker processing of arrivals and better organized returns of those denied the
right to stay. The Turkey deal has helped to decrease the flows to Greece. The
EU has been working on setting up similar deals with other countries, giving
money and other assistance to improve the conditions of people in the
troublesome areas.
But I am worried as I know that this is not enough.
I am worried because I know that the measures taken are easy
to sell under the brand of addressing the root causes. But these root causes
are not easy to address. The conflict in Syria, the turmoil across the whole
Middle East, military and political strife and extreme poverty in Africa will
not miraculously transform into stability overnight.
Even with immense amounts of funds and political dedication,
it will take many years to alleviate these problems. And neither our funds nor
dedication to solve them are immense.
We made some steps towards securing borders and managing
migration externally. But we have not advanced much in terms of adapting our
internal European migration system to the changing reality of the world.
The soothing numbers and the “addressing the root causes”
mantra allow us to pretend that we can stop people from migrating. We can’t. It
is in our own interest to admit it and decide what we do with those who have to
move. We haven’t diligently worked on our capacity to accommodate, integrate,
generate jobs, and give migrants opportunity to contribute to the society. We
have not figured out how to cooperate effectively across the Union to share
valuable intelligence information to increase security.
The Commission proposed the upgrade of the asylum system, but
it will take years to negotiate it. I am not sure Europe has the luxury to
negotiate for years. Another crisis might be around the corner. Arrivals to
Italy are the highest ever recorded, with most people coming from West Africa.
Warmer weather might bring another spike followed by a spout of public
hysteria. And then all good that’s been done and all the progress that’s been
achieved is reverted with nationalist populist parties coming to power across
Europe.
I am worried because I know that President Trump has just
signed disturbing orders banning not only refugees but also many Muslims from
entering the US and making them feel even more desperate and unfairly accused
of all the misfortunes of the world.
We are protecting borders and keeping people out to increase
our safety. We might be doing the opposite.
I can imagine ISIL fanatics sit back and relax. Fewer
desperate people coming to Europe and the US? More desperate people to recruit
for ISIL! The blamed, hated, desolate people from war-torn and extremely poor
regions might have no other options than live on the ISIL control territories
or join ISIL out of desperation.
Pro-migration minded people have been labelled idealists.
But I am a very pragmatic person. I just find this idealism convincing.
It is pragmatic to set up a workable system to manage
migration flows. It is delusional to pretend that we can wall off everyone. It
is pragmatic to help the most desperate and vulnerable. It is delusional to
think that you are fighting terrorism by banning Muslims and depriving
desperate people of a place to go.
It is pragmatic to want guarantees that one’s life, identity,
and income is safe. It is delusional to believe that populists and extreme
nationalist governments intend to or know how to give you all that.
Alena Kudzko
Deputy Research Director
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
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